Restrictions relaxing, consumption growing: Sberbank’s analytical website SberIndex.ru publishes analysis of Russians’ consumption behavior patterns between June 1 and 7, 2020
June 9, 2020, Moscow — SberData, Sberbank’s big data analytics and procession lab, keeps working on a series of indicators to track economic processes with the shortest time lag possible.
Consumer demand keeps rebounding. Between June 1 and 7, 2020, consumer spending soared 9.8% w-o-w. The y-o-y decline decelerated to 10.8%. The consumer activity index on Sberbank’s analytical website SberIndex.ru, which stands for the variety of categories of products and services in consumer baskets, increased from 63.6 to 68.1 points in the same stretch.
Following the latest round of relaxation measures, sales of non-food items practically reverted to the level registered in 2019, with the week-on-week change of a paltry ‑1.3% y-o-y. Total spending on products including groceries is 3.2% up y-o-y. Services also keep rebounding, although at a much slower pace. The y-o-y decline here is still 37.6% compared to the same stretch in 2019.
After non-food stores had reopened their doors the demand for their products skyrocketed. An upsurge was registered in the Clothing, Footwear, and Accessories category, which added 50% w-o-w nationwide and nearly 100% in Moscow and its suburbs, bringing its y-o-y decline down to ‑21% as compared to ‑64% y-o-y a week before that. Three more categories started rebounding fast – Building and Home Improvement Goods, Furniture and Interior Decorations, and Car Dealerships – to reach their 2019 revenues, which means they had fully rebounded as of the latest week analyzed.
Lockdown relaxation also benefited further restoration of some services. Beauty Parlors and SPA saw their revenues up one-fourth over the week. In Moscow Region, the category saw a 5.5-fold increase relative to late May. Growth in the Sports category was impressive too. As people were allowed to go for a walk, restaurants and cafés also started reporting bigger revenues (‑55.9% y-o-y). In general, higher figures were spotted across the entire service sector.
The last week’s performance is largely due to pent up demand. The fluctuations could be a sign that consumption is reverting to its usual patterns and offline retailers, which is also the case with the more modest increase across food categories (+7.8%) and gradually recovering food services.
Albeit figures are stable and growing weekly, spending is still lower compared to 2019. According to SberData lab analysts, three-fourths of the decline was initially caused by Russians’ behavior pattern changes and disrupted logistics, rather than the restrictive measures per se. This creates uncertainty as to the timeline of a complete recovery, especially in the service sector.
SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, you can find three key indexes on the website, all of them based on anonymized data. These are an incidence model, the consumer activity index, and consumer activity changes. The all-new Business section features the evolution of gross payroll and change in small business activity. The website also has other studies, including all SberData lab ones.
SberData laboratory is a Sberbank initiative designed to process and analyze big data. After analyzing data aggregated from payment processors and publicly available sources, bank experts unveil the quantitative characteristics of socio-economic processes in Russia on macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. Only anonymized data is used for analysis, which means no particular customers can be identified behind it. The lab and its studies do not disclose personal information or any trade secrets.